Finland is widely seen in Western Europe and the United States as a progressive paradise. In truth, its center-right-led coalition government in office since June 2023 has presided over far-reaching austerity measures, leading to rising homelessness and cuts in local health provisions. Yet there are also signs that this period may finally be coming to an end.
The coalition government, led by Petteri Orpo’s pro-business National Coalition Party, has seemingly been weakened by the collapse in the vote share of its main partner, the harder right Finns Party, in municipal and regional elections held on April 13. This signals the probability of a government led by the center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) following the next general election, to be held by spring 2027 at the latest.
Chair of the right-wing populist Finns Party Riikka Purra admitted defeat on results night, describing a “red wave” sweeping Finland. Overall, the Finns Party (formerly “True Finns”) was down 6.8 percent compared to the 2021 municipal elections, while the Social Democratic Party (headed by Antti Lindtman, who replaced outgoing premier Sanna Marin in 2023) made gains of 5.3 percent and had the highest vote share overall. Meanwhile, the democratic socialist Left Alliance boosted its vote by 1.3 percent, overtaking the Finns Party and sitting just behind the Green League, with which it often forms a red-green pact. Crucially, while the SDP increased its percentage share, the red-greens did not suffer as a result, as in previous elections. This time, the SDP took votes from the Finns Party after making the local elections a kind of referendum on the coalition government’s austerity measures.
Still, this has its limits. The SDP has moved further toward the center since 2021, when Marin was prime minister, during which time she gave members of the Left Alliance and the Green League important cabinet positions. In contrast, Lindtman’s Social Democrats…
Auteur: Mike Watson
