The Trump administration now looks closer than ever to stopping the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Until now, the US president had failed to fulfill his promise, but American diplomacy has gained two new advantages: the Russian army has achieved certain successes, and Ukraine has been engulfed in a political crisis that made President Volodymyr Zelensky more susceptible to outside pressure.
Washington issued an ultimatum to Kyiv, demanding that it accept many of Russia’s conditions, including ones that contradicted Ukraine’s “red lines.” President Zelensky agreed to discuss the plan.
In reality, a ceasefire remains a distant prospect. Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts, its European allies, and many within the United States are trying to amend the draft agreement in Kyiv’s favor. The Wall Street Journal spoke of how at talks in Berlin this week “Zelensky attempt[ed] to rewrite Trump’s peace plan rather than reject it.” It is also unclear whether the final proposal will be acceptable to Moscow. Russian diplomat Yuri Ushakov had already said that “the contribution of both Ukrainians and Europeans to these texts is unlikely to be constructive” and the Kremlin may well reject the edit finalized in the German capital.
To understand the prospects of the current peace initiative, the reasons behind earlier failures, and what awaits Russia, Ukraine, and Europe — whether Donald Trump’s strategy succeeds or collapses — we must decipher the “Trump peace formula” that he is offering the warring sides.
Critics often compare Trump’s peace plan to the Munich Agreement of 1938, when the leaders of Britain and France forced Czechoslovakia to cede the Sudetenland to Germany. That strategy of “appeasing the aggressor” ended in disaster. In March 1939, Adolf Hitler occupied and subdued the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Just as London and Paris once did, Trump is pressuring an ally to hand over territory to an aggressor and threatening to cut military…
Auteur: Liza Smirnova
