This summer, Sinn Féin faced two significant electoral tests for its immediate political ambitions. In the North of Ireland, things went according to plan as Sinn Féin overtook the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to become the region’s leading party at the UK general election. This completed a hat trick for Sinn Féin, after it previously bested the DUP in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly poll and the local elections of 2023.
In the South, on the other hand, this year’s local and European elections proved to be a major setback. With a general election due to be held by spring 2025 at the latest, Sinn Féin was hoping to cement its position as the most popular party in the state. Instead, it trailed behind Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the traditionally dominant forces of the center right. In both of the elections held on June 7, Sinn Féin’s vote share was less than half of the 24.5 percent it managed in the 2020 general election.
We cannot map these results directly onto a vote to decide who should lead the next government in Dublin. While the turnout in 2020 was 63 percent, barely half of those eligible to take part in the local and European elections did so this year. However, the opinion polls offer little encouragement for Sinn Féin in the run-up to its next big challenge.
Consider the main trends over the past three years. In July 2021, Sinn Féin pulled ahead of Fine Gael in the latest opinion survey after the two parties had jostled for position at the head of the pack during the first half of the year. Sinn Féin remained on top in every subsequent poll until May 2024. Its average score in 2022 was 34 percent, dropping slightly to 32 percent the following year.
Then things began to slide. Between January and the end of May,…
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Auteur: Daniel Finn
