Ever since Viktor Orbán’s far-right Fidesz party came to power with a sweeping supermajority in 2010, Hungary’s democratic institutions have faced constant pressure. Orbán called his victory a “revolution in the ballot box” and proceeded to systematically dismantle most institutional checks on his personal power. He adopted a new constitution, brought the Constitutional Court under party control, changed the electoral system, and redrew electoral districts to give his party a significant advantage.
There was more. Orbán used his political power to enrich friends and family members, consolidated most of the media market in the hands of loyalists, turned the public broadcaster into a propaganda outlet, and weaponized the state to bully NGOs, academics, labor unions, and the remnants of the independent press into silence.
While elections remained technically free, they were anything but fair. The systematic distortion of the playing field in favor of Fidesz produced three subsequent supermajorities in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 parliamentary elections.
The outlook for this Sunday’s vote, however, looks very different.
In previous “free but not fair” elections, the only realistic question was whether the incumbent ruling party would maintain its two-thirds supermajority. Today all independent polling institutes report a comfortable lead for the opposition, in percentage terms at least. A recent poll by independent pollster Medián showed a 20 percent lead for the center-right Tisza (Respect and Freedom) Party, though government-aligned counterparts continue to report that Orbán’s party remains ahead.
The main opposition runner, the center-right Péter Magyar, also appears to be the bookmakers’ favorite. It is likely no coincidence that Hungarian authorities banned Polymarket for “facilitating illegal gambling” just as the campaign began. Another clue to the genuine unpredictability of this election is that publicly traded shares of…
Auteur: Imre Szijarto
