The results of India’s national elections, announced at the beginning of June, cast doubt on the accuracy of forecasts which had unanimously predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — the outgoing coalition led by Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — would come out decisively on top. In fact, it won only a fragile majority, with the BJP forced to rely on coalition partners to stay in power after previously having a majority of seats in its own right.
The opposition coalition led by Rahul Gandhi (the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA), which brings together thirty-seven parties, most of them regional, emerged significantly stronger than before. Against a backdrop of virtual hegemony for the BJP (particularly at the institutional and media level), the opposition performance looked like a remarkable political victory.
Preelection polls estimated that the NDA would win between 306 and 411 of the 543 seats. Convinced of his invincibility, Modi had even adopted the campaign slogan “over 400” (“400 per” in Hindi). However, such overconfidence backfired on the prime minister and his camp. The opposition was quick to point out the threats such an ambition posed to religious minorities, to the constitutional protections of the Dalits (“untouchables”), and to the secular character of the regime.
Achieving a two-thirds majority (362 seats) would have enabled the BJP to embark on decisive constitutional reforms with a view to establishing a Hindu state. But with a result of 293 seats for the NDA (60 fewer than in 2019), of which only 240 were for the BJP (63 fewer than in 2019), the third Modi government will now have to deal with the coldness its alliance partners are expected to show…
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Auteur: Nicolas Jaoul
