Even by his own standards, Donald Trump’s Easter Sunday ultimatum, posted on Truth Social, was shocking for its recklessness and the panic it betrayed — to say nothing of its Islamophobic clash-of-civilizations assumptions. Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” the president wrote. “There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
In a follow-up message posted the same day, Trump clarified that Iran must either “MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!”
The Strait of Hormuz, the choke point through which a fifth of global oil and gas supplies passes, has effectively been closed by Iran for over five weeks. Oil prices have almost doubled, and the closure has precipitated a shortage in the supply of fertilizer and helium — byproducts of gas production — in global markets, portending a crisis for global harvests and microchip production. There is a broad consensus among analysts that Iran can keep the strait closed indefinitely simply by spooking shipping insurers.
A US ground war, touted by hawks as a solution to the crisis, will simply deepen the US quagmire. The calculation behind Trump’s ultimatum, to the extent that he has made one, appears to be that Tehran will surrender its leverage out of fear of escalation. This seems dubious: so far, Tehran has quickly met the United States and Israel on the escalation ladder by mimicking attacks, principally against the Persian Gulf monarchies but also against Israel.
Such a brazen strike against civilian infrastructure in Iran — an unmistakable war crime — would likely provoke a retaliatory response against similar infrastructure in the Gulf littoral states. Once considered a deterrent against attack, American bases in the gulf have been…
Auteur: Arron Reza Merat
