The recent release of Israeli American hostage Edan Alexander was the product of direct negotiations between the United States and Hamas. Presented as a confidence-building measure to establish a wider cease-fire, Israeli representatives were not party to the discussions.
This was seen as a historic departure in US-Israeli relations and precipitated serious debate over the interpersonal dynamics between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Avigdor Lieberman, the chair of conservative Israeli party Yisrael Beiteinu, says that the US-Israeli axis is enduring an “an unprecedented low.” Some have interpreted these dynamics as political theater, designed to provide cover for further bloody escalations. But we need to go beyond the temperament of individuals — the fixation of so much commentary today — and look to the structural trends and strategic tensions that form the backdrop to a changing world order.
The end of American unipolarity necessitates a paradigm shift in the Middle East and throws previous certainties into flux. The big picture is nothing less than a restructuring of the global state system: a world in transition, in which regional hegemons are arranging their own spheres of influence as part of the new multipolar order.
The United States, in decline relative to its erstwhile position as the single, undisputed superpower, is compelled to achieve the best possible deal from its managed retreat. The sprawling US apparatus is too costly to maintain, and critically, the wars it has fought in an effort to secure empire dominance have been abject, blundering failures. Within this shift, Israel is going to wield less strategic utility for the United States, who have no vital interests in the volatility intertwined with the…
Auteur: Jonathon Shafi
