Andreas Krieg
Partially, yes. Netanyahu has been using that narrative even in Gaza, where he was saying, “We want Palestinians to rise up against Hamas.” He used it in Lebanon, telling Lebanese citizens that they should rise up and get rid of Hezbollah. Now he’s using it in Iran. It’s a bit of a narrative.
I think he might believe in it, because he’s an ideologue — he’s a neocon. He does believe in regime change. That was always his ultimate dream in Iran: he didn’t want it to be brought about by Israel, but rather by a large, Iraq-style coalition that would occupy the state and bring down the regime.
Obviously, as you say, that’s not an option. There’s no support anywhere for a war to collapse the regime and seize territory. It only leaves you with the option of promoting internal dissent. You see pro-Israeli information networks pushing that narrative whenever they can. There was footage of people in Iran cheering on the air defenses when they were trying to take down Israeli planes, but pro-Israeli networks were looking at it and saying, “Look, these are Iranians cheering on Israeli planes,” which is absolutely not the case.
The more civilians Israel kills, the more personal this becomes for a lot of Iranians.
I think we have to be very careful in assessing things. Yes, there is simmering dissent among the Iranian people. I would say the large majority of Iranians are unhappy with that regime. It is in power because of repression, not because of accommodation — it has very little with which to accommodate its people.
But there is another factor at play here, which is that the Iranians are a very proud people, and they feel that they’re being attacked. The more civilians Israel kills, the more personal this becomes for a lot of Iranians. That has nothing to do with where they stand toward the regime.
It all depends on how…
Auteur: Andreas Krieg
