Mexico’s Lessons for the International Left

On Sunday, June 2, former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum won a resounding victory to become the first woman president in Mexican history. The thirty-two-point drubbing of her conservative opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez — the second landslide in a row for the barely decade-old Morena (National Regeneration Movement) party — was even larger than the one that swept Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) to power in 2018. Outstripping final poll averages by some ten to fifteen points, Sheinbaum won from north to south, in urban and rural areas alike, and in every state but one. Crucially, the MORENA coalition also reached the supermajority threshold of two-thirds in the Chamber of Deputies and came close enough in the Senate that it will be able to pass constitutional amendments virtually on its own, without the need to negotiate with the opposition.

A closer look at exit poll results reveals how the victory was constructed. Sheinbaum won 56 percent of women and 62 percent of men, belying the “machismo” label so beloved by the foreign press and the correspondents who swooped into the country in the days before the election in search of easy sound bites. She won across age ranges, income strata, and educational levels, carrying those with no schooling or elementary education by large margins but also the college educated by seven points. Similarly, she did not only win a thumping 71 percent of voters in the lowest socioeconomic strata — indicative of the class realignment that has taken place over the last six years — but also beat out Gálvez among the upper-middle class, 49 percent to 41 percent. Sheinbaum prevailed across trades and professions, losing only those who identified as “owners,” and even won a sizable plurality (42…