By supporting Ukraine at a time of need, the Polish government has chalked up points with other European governments. Soon after Russia invaded, in late February, Poland welcomed hundreds of thousands of refugees and drummed up support for arming Kyiv. In March, it sent its prime minister to Kiev alongside Czech and Slovenian counterparts. Three months later, Germany, France and Italy were playing catch-up, bolstering the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party narrative that European leadership was shifting to the East. Warsaw’s harder stance on Russia also increasingly appears vindicated, as the conflict sheds light on the security issues of NATO’s eastern flank.
But Russia’s war against Ukraine has also spurred less liberal ambitions. The Polish Defence Minister has repeatedly trumpeted its plans to more than double its security budget in 2023 with the view to building up a “great army” capable of withstanding the shock of a Russian armed attack.
Europe’s most powerful army
Analysts believe such plans could make the Polish army the most powerful in Europe. French defence website Méta Défense highlights a “spectacular reinforcement of the Polish army’s overall capacity, which, by the end of the decade, will include 1,500 modern tanks, an equal number of infantry combat vehicles, 1,200 mobile artillery units and several thousand light armoured vehicles to exceed the arms capacity of the French, German, UK, Italian, Dutch and Belgian forces combined”.
The government, which is expected to spend 3% of the national budget on defence, now intends to grow its land army from four to six divisions, equivalent to 300,000 soldiers, compared with the current figure of 115,000. It will also see a significant boost in firepower. The national defence policy excludes pre-emptive strikes but seeks to deter any armed aggression.
Warsaw will rely not only on purchasing existing technology, but also on partnerships that are likely to strengthen the Polish national arms industry. Plans have been made to acquire US tanks and helicopters, as well as HIMARS missiles, the latter of which proved highly effective during combat in Ukraine.
Other contracts have been signed with South Korea, including shipments of tanks and howitzers and as recent orders of 288 artillery rocket launchers. More importantly, these purchases from Seoul appear to include technology transfers and cooperation deals that could increase the autonomy of the Polish defence industry, perhaps even to rival that of the country’s western European counterparts.
All along, the EU’s defence industries have been systematically disregarded in favour of US, UK and South Korean equipment (with Poland switching from Airbus to Italian brand Leonardo, only to drop them for Boeing Apache helicopters).
The PiS favours overseas kit
These plans chime with the realist “geopolitical ideology” driving PiS and large swaths of the Polish conservative landscape. They also clarify…
La suite est à lire sur: theconversation.com
Auteur: Frédéric Zalewski, Maître de conférences en Science politique, membre de l’Institut des sciences sociales du politiques (ISP, CNRS), Université Paris Nanterre – Université Paris Lumières
