Political betting markets, which facilitated more than $3 billion in total election-related bets, are poised to benefit significantly from Trump administration ties and policies, despite mounting concerns about the dangers of election gambling.
Thanks to the conservative takeover of the courts, this election season was the first cycle with a legal political gambling market in the United States. In October, the betting platform Kalshi won its court battle for legalization, allowing thousands of US traders to place election bets on this year’s presidential election.
In the days before the November 5 election, Times Square and the Las Vegas strip were plastered with Kalshi advertisements urging consumers to wager on a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win. At the same time, the cryptocurrency political betting platform Polymarket — which is technically off-limits to US bettors, although that has not stopped many traders — saw massive growth: its users bet over $3 billion on the presidential election.
As the election approached, bettors across these political gambling platforms increasingly favored former president Trump to win. He saw particularly high odds on Polymarket, skewed by $30 million in Trump bets placed apparently by a single French trader (who has now walked away with $48 million in profits). Since Trump’s win, the platforms have claimed vindication, arguing that they predicted his victory despite wildly fluctuating odds on the betting platforms.
But the real win for platforms like Kalshi is likely in the laissez-faire approach Trump’s administration seems poised to take on election betting oversight. Several policies buried deep in Project 2025, the right-wing playbook for a second Trump administration,…
Auteur: Katya Schwenk
