The Trump administration won’t say and prefers the cost not be discussed.
The United States spent an estimated $28.7 billion in the first two weeks of the Iran war, or $2.1 billion a day on average. This is based on my analysis of officials’ statements, federal procurement and operations data, and reporting on military deployments and armament use. This estimate refers only to direct war costs — near-term expenses for military operations, munitions, and the like — and not indirect costs, which include broader and longer-term factors like economic impact and veterans’ care.
This might be a higher estimate than you’ve seen elsewhere. Those estimates are too low. This one could be too.
In a recent closed-door briefing with select lawmakers, Pentagon officials estimated the war had cost $11.3 billion in the first week. That figure, despite not accounting for much besides munition expenses, is the closest the Trump administration has come to saying how much it’s spending on the Iran war. Mainstream media outlets repeat the figure over and over, as their compulsive need to cite figures from government officials clashes with officials not giving any. It’s also the basis for popular cost estimates from think tanks.
For example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) originally said the war had cost $3.7 billion over the first one hundred hours, which became one of the most widely cited estimates, though probably not for the reason CSIS intended. In the media, the chasm between the CSIS and Pentagon estimates became a popular trope for how the cost of the Iran War was smashing expectations. CSIS then released another estimate — this one built pretty much entirely around the Pentagon’s — which became popular in its own right, even serving as the basis for estimates by news outlets and other think tanks.
The prevailing war cost estimates have two things in common. First, they’re all better than the dozens of…
Auteur: Stephen Semler
