Where the World Sees Crisis, Israel Sees Opportunity

Joseph Daher

There were several levels to this decision. First, before the outbreak of the genocidal war of the State of Israel against the population of the Gaza Strip, the strengthening of the alliance between Hezbollah and its Palestinian allies with other groups supported by Tehran in the region was intended to strengthen its deterrence capacity against Israel, although Hezbollah never believed it could achieve parity. This materialized after October 7, with the “unity of fronts” strategy put forward by Hezbollah officials. The first targets of the Lebanese movement were the Shebaa Farms in occupied Lebanese territory, and not the Israeli territories directly.

Subsequently, they carried out calculated and moderated attacks targeting Israeli military sites, despite Israel’s violation of all red lines and expansion of its murderous campaign against Lebanon. They have only recently increased intensity in response to escalation in mid-late September by Israel. Hezbollah’s objective was to show their solidarity with their Palestinian political allies, so that the party would have credibility when it attempted to mobilize its popular base and wider constituencies within Lebanon. The party also sought to protect the interests and alliances linked to Iran in the region. In addition to this, Hezbollah did not want this conflict to be exploited by its internal political enemies.

Israel’s current war against Lebanon, with the support of the United States, has challenged this plan. The Israeli occupation army indeed escalated its war against Lebanon in mid-September 2024, leading to the death of more than one thousand individuals, injuring several thousand, and causing massive destruction of civilian infrastructure as well as the forced displacement of more than 1.2 million people in less than a month. It is clear that the Israeli occupation army is…